We are bad at predicting the future from changes that happen exponentially. Exponential growth is deceptive, it starts slowly like the steady change we are familiar with predicting, before becoming explosive. What trends are happening exponentially today that will shape our future?
1. Cost of DNA sequencing
Side note: The sudden drop in January 2008 is when the sequencing centers transitioned from Sanger-based to ‘second generation’ DNA sequencing technologies DNA Sequencing Costs: Data
2. Cost of launching a kg to low earth orbit
Falcon Heavy cost is $1,500/kg is an order of magnitude lower than the cost of launching on the Shuttle 20 years ago. Estimates for Starship are under $100 /kg. Space Launch to Low Earth Orbit: How Much Does It Cost? - Aerospace Security
3. Mobile cellular subscriptions Mobile cellular subscriptions - Our World in Data
4. Mobile data traffic
Ericsson Mobility Visualizer - Mobility Report - Ericsson
We are bad at predicting the future when changes happen exponentially. Exponential growth is deceptive, it starts slowly like the steady change we are used to before growing explosively.— meekal bajaj (@mbe) February 7, 2022
What exponential trends are we in the early stages of today that will shape our future?